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SPY closed inside its expected move for a third straight session

Bar chart of SPY's close-to-close move as a percent of the VIX-implied expected move for Oct 12 to Oct 21, 2026: 6%, 1%, 112% (red, outside), 27%, 107% (red, outside), 34%, 29%, 48%. A dashed line marks 100%.
SPY close-to-close move as % of the expected move, Oct 12–21, 2026. Expected move = prior-day VIX ÷ √252. Source: Regime Stack™.

Based on Tuesday's VIX close of 17.31, SPY's expected move for Wednesday, Oct 21 was ±1.09%, or ±8.39 points, a range of 760.66 to 777.44.

SPY closed at 773.09, up 0.53% (4.04 points), which used 48% of that expected move; the day's high of 774.43 and low of 768.40 also stayed inside the range.

That makes three sessions in a row inside the expected move (Oct 19, 20 and 21) and 6 of the 8 sessions since Oct 12 (75.0%).

The two closes outside the range were both declines: Oct 14 (−1.08%) and Oct 16 (−1.11%).

Data only. Not investment advice.

Data only. Not investment advice.Descriptive market data from the Regime Stack Scorecard™. It is not a recommendation or a forecast.
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